Macro

Overview

What changed since 11 Nov (NOT MATERIAL: no new CB decision; no new final CPI/GDP/payrolls print; no new UST curve (11 Nov bond-market holiday), so no 2y move to test; no new NBP fix, so no FX move to test; VIX −1.97 pts (< 3-pt threshold); BTC −0.5%; ETF flow −$299.8M (< |$500M|))

• US rates: no new Treasury curve. The 11 Nov Veterans Day bond-market holiday means the latest is still 10 Nov: 2y/10y/30y 4.73 / 4.98 / 5.35; 2s10s +25 bp. The 12 Nov curve is published after the US close. SOFR 3.88% / EFFR 3.88% (9 Nov; NY Fed). The 10 Nov prints were not yet posted at this pull (normally ~08:00 ET on the next business day, i.e. today ~14:00 CET). Fed press feed (checked 12 Nov): no new item since 9 Nov; no monetary-policy item since 28 Oct. The speeches feed now lists Waller and Bowman (both 10 Nov); content was not read.
• US risk: VIX 17.49 (11 Nov close; open 18.81, high 18.96, low 17.33) vs 19.46 (10 Nov): −1.97 pts, below the 3-pt threshold (Cboe). US equity/options markets were open on Veterans Day. FRED VIXCLS still runs only through 10 Nov.
• Poland: no new MPC decision or GUS final print. FX unchanged: the NBP API latest is still 219/A (10 Nov): USD/PLN 3.9099, EUR/PLN 4.3895. There was no 11 Nov fix (Independence Day), and today's table (12 Nov) is normally published around midday, after this pull. GUS Oct CPI final + Q3 GDP flash: Fri 13 Nov, 09:30 per PAP (via Stooq, 9 Nov) and Bankier. The GUS primary calendar still doesn't confirm it (see Gaps).
• Crypto: spot BTC ETFs −$299.8M (11 Nov; IBIT −269.7, GBTC −39.1, MSBT +9.0). This is the fifth consecutive outflow session and below the |$500M| threshold. November MTD ≈ −$1,877.5M (was ≈ −$1,577.7M) (Farside; the 2–10 Nov rows are unchanged on re-fetch). Spot: BTC ~$73.5k (−0.5% vs 11 Nov brief), ETH ~$2,048 (−0.7%), SOL ~$82.8 (flat) (CoinGecko, 12 Nov ~08:29 CET). BTC.D 59.85% (+0.04 pp). Total mcap ~$2.467T (−0.5%).

Cross-book

• Rates: Fed upper bound 4.00% vs NBP 3.75%. The spread is unchanged. With no new US curve, the 10 Nov back-up (2y +17 bp to 4.73% on CPI day) is the latest rates signal. SOFR/EFFR remain inside the target range.
• FX: no new NBP fix since 10 Nov (USD/PLN −0.26%, EUR/PLN +0.05% on that day, both below 1%). USD/PLN is +0.56% vs the 2 Oct reference (3.8881).
• Liquidity / risk appetite: VIX eased to 17.49, its lowest close since 4 Nov (16.61). Spot BTC ETF outflows widened to −$299.8M, and spot crypto was broadly flat to slightly lower (BTC −0.5%). Lower equity-implied vol did not coincide with ETF inflows on 11 Nov. These are time coincidences; no causal claim is made.
• Interaction: Fri 13 Nov is the key day: PL Oct CPI final + Q3 GDP flash (09:30 per press), NBP Sep balance of payments (14:00) and US Oct PPI (14:30 Warsaw). After that come Oct PCE (25 Nov), the 1–2 Dec MPC (the Governor's 5 Nov guidance put weight on incoming inflation data) and the 8–9 Dec FOMC. Today (12 Nov) per Bankier: US weekly jobless claims (14:30) and Fed speakers Hammack, Goolsbee and Daly. Neither is a threshold event.

Calendar

• Thu 12 Nov US jobless claims (weekly; 14:30 Warsaw), Fed speakers (per Bankier) · Fri 13 Nov GUS Oct CPI final + Q3 GDP flash (09:30 per PAP/Bankier/Parkiet; GUS calendar not confirmed), NBP balance of payments Sep (14:00 per PAP) and US PPI (Oct; 14:30 Warsaw) · NBP core typically follows on the next business day (date unconfirmed) · 25 Nov US PCE (Oct) · 1–2 Dec NBP MPC · 4 Dec US payrolls (Nov) · 8–9 Dec FOMC + SEP · 10 Dec US CPI (Nov).

Books

• [POLAND.md](POLAND.md): NBP hold 3.75% (4 Nov); Governor hawkish (5 Nov); Sep CPI final 4.1%; core 3.1%; USD/PLN 3.9099, EUR/PLN 4.3895 (219/A, 10 Nov; no newer fix at pull).
• [US.md](US.md): Fed 3.75–4.00%; Oct CPI +0.4% / core +0.3% m/m (no y/y published); Oct payrolls +165k / U-3 4.1%; Sep PCE 3.6%/3.1%; UST 4.73/4.98 (10 Nov); VIX 17.49 (11 Nov); SOFR 3.88% (9 Nov).
• [CRYPTO.md](CRYPTO.md): BTC ~$73.5k; BTC.D 59.85%; ETF 11 Nov −$299.8M; Nov MTD ≈ −$1,877.5M.

Gaps

• Not refreshed (no new publication at pull time, prior values kept and labelled): UST curve (latest 10 Nov), SOFR/EFFR (latest 9 Nov), NBP fix (latest 219/A, 10 Nov). Today's NBP table and the 10 Nov SOFR/EFFR are due later today. The 12 Nov curve is due after the US close.
• US Oct CPI 12-month changes are not published by BLS (Oct 2025 is missing). They are not computed or estimated here.
• The GUS Oct CPI final date (13 Nov per PAP/Bankier/Parkiet) is still not confirmed on a GUS primary calendar. The legacy stat.gov.pl/kalendarium day pages for 12 and 13 Nov returned HTTP 404 at this pull. The Oct CPI *flash* of 3.5% is not final and is excluded.
• The PAP weekly preview (9 Nov) mentions an S&P cut to Poland's rating outlook. This was not verified from S&P or MoF and is not used.
• Fed speeches (Waller and Bowman, 10 Nov; today's speakers) were not read. Drivers of the VIX, ETF-flow and spot moves are not established from official sources, so no narrative is attributed.
• MoF Jan–Sep budget, US PPI and GDP were not refreshed (no new final GDP prints). `data/` was untouched this pass.

Poland / GPW

Snapshot

• | Item | Latest | Period / date | Source |
• | --- | --- | --- | --- |
• | NBP reference rate | 3.75% (hold) | MPC 3–4 Nov 2026 | NBP decision via press mirrors (4 Nov) [1][8] |
• | CPI headline (final) | 4.1% y/y, 0.7% m/m | Sep 2026 | GUS, 14 Oct 2026 [2] |
• | Services / goods | 5.3% / 3.6% y/y | Sep 2026 | GUS, 14 Oct [2] |
• | Core ex food & energy | 3.1% y/y (Aug 3.3%) | Sep 2026 | NBP, 15 Oct (via TVN24 / 26pietro) [3] |
• | USD/PLN (NBP mid) | 3.9099 (no newer fix at 12 Nov pull) | 10 Nov 2026, 219/A/NBP/2026 | NBP API [4] |
• | EUR/PLN (NBP mid) | 4.3895 | same | NBP API [4] |

+2 more

Policy

• MPC 3–4 Nov 2026 (hold): reference 3.75%, lombard 4.25%, deposit 3.25%, rediscount 3.80%, discount 3.85%. Seventh consecutive hold; the only 2026 move so far was −25 bp in March [1][8][9].
• Statement / projection (4 Nov, via press mirrors): November NECMOD projection (unchanged-rates assumption, data through 15 Oct). CPI 50% band: 3.1–3.2% in 2026 (vs 2.4–3.3% in July), 3.1–5.3% in 2027 (vs 1.5–4.0%), 1.4–4.4% in 2028 (vs 0.8–3.9%). GDP: 3.2–4.1% (2026), 1.9–3.8% (2027), 1.7–3.9% (2028) [8][9]. Further decisions are data-dependent.
• Governor press conference (5 Nov, press reports [9]; carry): the hold followed a "very lively, heated discussion". The Council's stance is more hawkish than in October ("we fear rates will have to be raised"). December changes are rare; January is a "big question mark", depending on government fuel regulation (CPN) and commodity prices. Core inflation probably fell in October. The projection assumes CPN ends in Jan 2027, with CPI back at the 2.5% target in H2 2028.
• No new MPC communication was found for 6–12 Nov (search checked 12 Nov). Next meeting: 1–2 Dec [6].

Inflation

• CPI Sep 2026 final (GUS, 14 Oct): +4.1% y/y, +0.7% m/m (m/m: goods +1.2%, services −0.5%). Y/y: services +5.3%, goods +3.6% [2]. Up from the Aug final of 3.4% y/y and above the 3.5% upper tolerance.
• NBP core Sep 2026 (15 Oct): ex food & energy 3.1% (3.3%); ex administered 4.1% (3.3%); ex most volatile 4.0% (3.6%); 15% trimmed mean 2.8% (2.8%) [3].
• Fuel VAT was cut from 23% to 8%, with maximum prices from 3 Oct through year-end (secondary source) [3]. Oct CPI final: Fri 13 Nov, 09:30 per press (PAP, Bankier, Parkiet) [10] (GUS signal releases are published at 09:30 since 18 Mar 2026, per the GUS calendar header). The Oct *flash* is excluded here.

FX (NBP Tabela A mid)

• | Date | Table | USD/PLN | EUR/PLN |
• | --- | --- | --- | --- |
• | 10 Nov | 219/A | 3.9099 | 4.3895 |
• | 9 Nov | 218/A | 3.9199 | 4.3873 |
• | 6 Nov | 217/A | 3.9321 | 4.3925 |
• | 5 Nov | 216/A | 3.9101 | 4.3916 |
• | 4 Nov | 215/A | 3.9097 | 4.4014 |
• | 3 Nov | 214/A | 3.9526 | 4.4233 |

+8 more

Growth / labor / fiscal (carry, short)

• Labor: GUS registered unemployment 5.8% (Sep 2026; carried from the 3 Nov homepage check) [5]; LFS Q2 3.2% (GUS, 25 Aug) [5].
• Budget Jan–Aug 2026 deficit PLN 151.1 bn (55.6% of plan): MoF estimate, 15 Sep [7]. Not refreshed.
• GDP: omitted (no new final print). The Q3 *flash* is due 13 Nov (PAP/Bankier [10]) and will be excluded as not final.

Gaps

• The Oct CPI final date is not confirmed from a GUS primary calendar. On 11 Nov the legacy stat.gov.pl/kalendarium day pages for 13 and 14 Nov showed "Brak publikacji" (no publications), and on 12 Nov the 12 and 13 Nov day pages returned HTTP 404. This looks incomplete rather than conclusive. Press now mostly agrees on 13 Nov: PAP 9 Nov, Bankier, Parkiet and Investing. Older PAP/finwire items cited 14 Nov, a Saturday. 13 Nov is treated as the likely date.
• The PAP weekly preview (9 Nov) mentions an S&P cut to Poland's rating outlook. This was not verified from S&P or MoF and is not used.
• The nbp.pl primary communiqué, the projection PDF and the conference transcript were not fetched. Decision, projection and Governor quotes come from press reports.
• NBP core is still cited via secondary mirrors of the 15 Oct release.
• Registered unemployment was not re-confirmed (5.8% for Sep carried, as of 3 Nov). The MoF Jan–Sep budget estimate was not checked.
• The Oct CPI flash is not final and is not used as a CPI print.
• No 12 Nov NBP fix at pull time: FX is carried from 219/A (10 Nov). Today's table is due around midday.
• The driver of the 10 Nov USD/PLN move is not established from official sources, so no narrative is attributed.

+1 more

US / S&P

Snapshot

• | Item | Latest | as-of | Source |
• | --- | --- | --- | --- |
• | Fed funds target | 3.75–4.00% (held 28 Oct, 10–2) | 28 Oct | FOMC statement [12]; NY Fed EFFR target range [10] |
• | SOFR / EFFR | 3.88% / 3.88% | 9 Nov | NY Fed reference rates API [10] |
• | CPI headline | +0.4% m/m SA; 12-mo change not published (Sep: +0.6% / +3.7% y/y) | Oct 2026 | BLS USDL-26-1685, 10 Nov [2] |
• | CPI core | +0.3% m/m SA; 12-mo change not published (Sep: +0.3% / +2.6% y/y) | Oct 2026 | same |
• | PCE / core PCE | 3.6% / 3.1% y/y (+0.5% / +0.3% m/m) | Sep 2026 | BEA 26–46, 29 Oct [3] |
• | Payrolls / U-3 | +165k / 4.1% | Oct 2026 | BLS USDL-26-1632, 6 Nov [4] |

+3 more

Policy

• The target range has been 3.75–4.00% since 17 Sep (+25 bp, 12–0, at the 16 Sep FOMC). The SEP median of 4.1% for YE2026 implies one more +25 bp (Fed, 16 Sep) [6].
• FOMC 27–28 Oct 2026 (no SEP): held at 3.75–4.00%, vote 10–2. Cook and Hammack dissented in favour of +25 bp [12]. Press feed checked 12 Nov ~08:30 CET: the latest item is still the 9 Nov application approval (Mutual Federal Bancorp), with no monetary-policy item since 28 Oct [7].
• Fed speakers per the Bankier weekly calendar (secondary): Goolsbee and Barkin (9 Nov); Waller, Logan and Schmid (10 Nov); Hammack, Goolsbee and Daly (12 Nov) [13]. The Fed speeches feed lists Waller and Bowman texts dated 10 Nov [8]. Content was not read.
• Next FOMC: 8–9 Dec (+ SEP) [9].

Inflation

• CPI Oct 2026 (BLS USDL-26-1685, 10 Nov): all items +0.4% SA m/m (Sep +0.6%); core +0.3% (third straight +0.3%); energy +0.7% (Sep +5.2%); gasoline +1.0% SA (−0.7% NSA); electricity +0.9%; food +0.5% (food at home +0.4%, away +0.5%); shelter +0.3% (OER +0.3%, rent +0.2%); used cars −1.2%; motor vehicle insurance +0.7%. NSA CPI-U index 337.511 (+0.2% NSA m/m) [2]. 12-month changes are not published for most series, including all items and core, because Oct 2025 indexes are missing. Published exceptions include gasoline +37.4%, new vehicles +0.7% and used cars −3.3% y/y. Index levels via the BLS API: SA all items 337.476 (Sep 336.298), SA core 339.900 (Sep 338.896) [2]. Next CPI (Nov): Thu 10 Dec, 8:30 ET.
• CPI Sep 2026 (BLS USDL-26-1574, 14 Oct; prior): +0.6% SA m/m / +3.7% y/y; core +0.3% / +2.6% [2].
• PCE Sep 2026 (BEA 26–46, 29 Oct): headline +0.5% m/m / +3.6% y/y; core +0.3% / +3.1% [3]. Next PCE (Oct): 25 Nov. The Q3 GDP *advance* print is not final and is excluded.
• PPI (Oct): Fri 13 Nov, 8:30 ET (per Bankier calendar [13]). PCE (Oct) on 25 Nov will be the next inflation print with a y/y figure, if BEA publishes one.

Labor (carry)

• Oct 2026 Employment (BLS USDL-26-1632, 6 Nov): payrolls +165k, vs a 12-month average of +48k. U-3 4.1%; participation 61.9%; E/P 59.3%. AHE +$0.14 (+0.4%) to $38.00, +3.1% y/y. Revisions: Aug +186k (from +133k), Sep +60k (from +29k), +84k combined [4].
• Next report (Nov): Fri 4 Dec, 8:30 ET [4].

Rates / risk

• | | 2 Oct | 26 Oct | 27 Oct | 28 Oct | 29 Oct | 30 Oct | 2 Nov | 3 Nov | 4 Nov | 5 Nov | 6 Nov | 9 Nov | 10 Nov | 11 Nov |
• | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
• | UST 2y | 4.83 | 4.68 | 4.70 | 4.67 | 4.61 | 4.56 | 4.59 | 4.61 | 4.58 | 4.46 | 4.51 | 4.56 | 4.73 | hol. |
• | UST 10y | 5.28 | 5.00 | 4.99 | 5.05 | 4.98 | 4.94 | 4.91 | 4.95 | 4.90 | 4.84 | 4.86 | 4.88 | 4.98 | hol. |
• | UST 30y | — | 5.31 | 5.30 | 5.37 | 5.32 | 5.31 | 5.28 | 5.32 | 5.28 | 5.25 | 5.26 | 5.26 | 5.35 | hol. |
• | VIX | 15.31 | 18.39 | 17.52 | 16.91 | 17.20 | 19.42 | 21.15 | 20.83 | 16.61 | 28.18 | 25.64 | 19.92 | 19.46 | 17.49 |
• | SOFR | — | 3.93 | 3.95 | 3.94 | 3.94 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.97 | 3.94 | 3.92 | 3.89 | 3.88 | n/a | hol. |
• | EFFR | — | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | 3.88 | n/a | hol. |

+2 more

Calendar (ET)

• ~~10 Nov CPI (Oct)~~ (done: +0.4% / core +0.3% m/m; no 12-mo change published) · ~~Wed 11 Nov Veterans Day~~ · Thu 12 Nov jobless claims (weekly), Treasury monthly statement, Fed speakers (per Bankier [13]) · Fri 13 Nov PPI (Oct) · Wed 25 Nov Personal Income & Outlays (Oct) · Fri 4 Dec Employment (Nov) · 8–9 Dec FOMC + SEP · Thu 10 Dec CPI (Nov).

Gaps

• Oct CPI 12-month changes (headline and core) are not published by BLS because Oct 2025 is missing. They are not computed or estimated here, and y/y comparisons with Sep are therefore not available.
• Not refreshed at this pull (no newer publication): UST curve (latest 10 Nov) and SOFR/EFFR (latest 9 Nov; the 10 Nov prints are due ~14:00 CET today). There is no 11 Nov curve or rates (Veterans Day). FRED VIXCLS lags Cboe by one day.
• Drivers of the 10 Nov yield back-up (2y +17 bp) are not established from official sources. It coincided in time with the CPI release, but no causal claim is made.
• Fed speeches since 28 Oct (incl. the Waller/Bowman 10 Nov texts and today's speakers), the Chair press conference and the Implementation Note were not read. PPI, JOLTS and the broad USD (DTWEXBGS) were not refreshed.

Crypto

Snapshot (CoinGecko API)

• | Asset | Spot (USD) | 24h Δ | vs 11 Nov brief | as-of |
• | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
• | BTC | 73,465 | −0.46% | −0.51% | 12 Nov ~08:29 CET [1] |
• | ETH | 2,047.54 | −0.70% | −0.66% | same [1] |
• | SOL | 82.83 | −0.05% | +0.01% | same [1] |
• Total crypto mcap ~$2.467T; BTC dominance 59.85%, ETH 10.13% (CoinGecko `/global`, updated_at epoch 1794468338 = 12 Nov 08:25 CET) [2].

Liquidity — US spot BTC ETF flows (Farside, USD m)

• | Date | Net | Date | Net |
• | --- | --- | --- | --- |
• | 1 Oct | +102.7 | 21 Oct | +524.8 (IBIT +235.0, FBTC +212.7) |
• | 2 Oct | +189.9 | 22 Oct | −635.6 (IBIT −254.1, FBTC −217.5, ARKB −109.4) |
• | 5 Oct | −89.8 | 23 Oct | −137.9 |
• | 6 Oct | +118.8 | 26 Oct | +110.3 |
• | 7 Oct | −484.9 | 27 Oct | +176.0 |
• | 8 Oct | −244.1 | 28 Oct | +137.3 |

+11 more

Macro linkages (cross-book, citeable)

• VIX 17.49 (11 Nov; 19.46 on 10 Nov, Cboe). UST 2y 4.73%, 10y 4.98% (10 Nov; there was no 11 Nov curve because of Veterans Day). US Oct CPI (10 Nov): +0.4% / core +0.3% m/m SA; BLS published no 12-month change. FOMC 28 Oct held 3.75–4.00%; next 8–9 Dec (see [US.md](US.md)).
• NBP: held 3.75% on 4 Nov; the Governor signalled a more hawkish stance on 5 Nov. USD/PLN 3.9099 (10 Nov, 219/A; no newer fix at pull). PL Oct CPI final + Q3 GDP flash are due Fri 13 Nov per press, together with US PPI (Oct) (see [POLAND.md](POLAND.md)).
• On 11 Nov VIX fell ~2 pts to 17.49, while spot BTC ETF outflows widened to −$299.8M and BTC/ETH/SOL were roughly flat to slightly lower between the 11 and 12 Nov snapshots. Lower equity-implied vol did not coincide with ETF inflows. This is a coincidence in time, not a causal claim.

Regulatory (carry)

• CLARITY Act (H.R.3633): cloture on the motion to proceed was rejected 49–50 (Senate roll call 234, 15 Sep 2026) [4]. No newer official action checked.

Gaps

• The Farside 11 Nov row may be incomplete or revised: FBTC, BITB, ARKB and several other funds show 0.0. The 10 Nov row was unchanged on re-fetch.
• The intraday spot path is not tracked; only the 12 Nov CoinGecko snapshot is used.
• ETH/SOL ETF flows, funding/OI and stablecoin supply were not pulled.
• No regulatory updates were checked after 15 Sep. Drivers of the ETF outflows and of the 11–12 Nov spot moves are not established from official sources, so no narrative is attributed.